How to predict future land use and biodiversity change
under climatic change at the regional level
Climate change will impact biodiversity directly, through changing climatic conditions at all spatial scales, but also indirectly, through changing patterns of future human land use, globally, but also locally. The indirect and direct effects of climate change on biodiversity change are important because land use change is already the main driver of current biodiversity loss. Direct climate change effects can be modelled based on species responses to changed climatic conditions and a change in habitat conditions, i.e. purely ecological considerations. In contrast, future changes in land use depend on the change in abiotic conditions and also on how humans decide to change their land use under climate change, making the estimation of indirect climate change effects an even larger challenge. Land-use decisions are affected by globalisation and global flow of goods, but for a particular piece of land are made at the local and regional level. Thus, modelling the indirect effect of climate change on biodiversity requires modelling regional land use under climatic change.
This workshop will bring together various modelling approaches to understand how regional climate change and land use models can be combined to predict direct and indirect effects of climate change on local biodiversity. The product of the workshop will be a perspective paper outlining the challenges and potential solutions for regional predictions of biodiversity change under climate change.
Gäste von außerhalb sind herzlich zum Programmteil am Dienstag, den 6.10.2020, eingeladen. Montag und Mittwoch sind den Verbundmitgliedern vorbehalten.
BLIZ Mitglieder und keynote speaker sind nach ihrer Registrierung für die Teilnahme am gesamten Konferenzprogramm von Montag, 5.10.2020, bis Mittwoch, 7.10.2020, angemeldet.
bayklif office or Mona Reiss, Projektkoordination BLIZ